optimizer's blog

Global Economic Collaps

2011-10-15T11:47:00.000-07:00

রিচয় করিয়ে দেই, এই হল আমাদের আঙ্কেল স্যাম ওরফে আমেরিকার সরকার। তার খরচাপাতি অনেক। প্রতিবছর চার ট্রিলিয়ন ডলারের মত। কিন্তু আঙ্কেলের ইনকাম বছরে মাত্র দুই ট্রিলিয়ন ডলারের কিছু বেশি। এই ঘাটতি মেটানোর জন্য তিনি আমাদের মতই মানুষের কাছে ধার করেন। তার এই ধারের টাকার তিনি একটা লোভনীয় নাম দিয়েছেন – বন্ড। এই বন্ডগুলো ব্যাংক, বিনিয়োগকারী এমনকি বিদেশী সরকারও (যেমন চীন) কিনতে পারে। কিন্তু মানুষ কেন তার এই বন্ড কিনবে? কারণ এর সাথে তিনি এই বন্ডের ওপর প্রতিবছর একটা নির্দিষ্ট অঙ্কের সুদ দেবেন।

প্যাঁচটা শুরু হয় এইখান থেকে। আঙ্কেলের কাছে নাই টাকা, কিন্তু তাকে প্রতি বছর বন্ডের জন্য সুদ গুনতে হচ্ছে। এখন কি হবে? এর উত্তর আমরা সবাই জানি, কারণ আমরা এই কাজটা সবসময় করি। কি করি? এক বন্ধুর কাছ থেকে ধার নিয়ে আরেক বন্ধুর টাকা শোধ করি। আঙ্কেল ও ঠিক একই কাজ করেন। তিনি তার পুরনো বন্ডের সুদের টাকা জোগাড় করার জন্য নতুন বন্ড ছাপান। মানে আবার নতুন করে ধার করেন। এই সব ধারের আর সুদের অঙ্ক দিনকে দিন বাড়তে থাকে। এই আকাজ করতে করতে আঙ্কেলের বর্তমানে এই বন্ড বাবদ পৃথিবীর বিভিন্ন ব্যাংক আর সরকারের কাছে সুদসহ মোট দেনা চৌদ্দ ট্রিলিয়ন (14,000,000,000,000$!) ডলারের মত। দেনার অংকটা কত বড় যদি আন্দাজ করতে চান তাহলে বলি, আমেরিকার ‘জি ডি পি’ চৌদ্দ ট্রিলিয়ন ডলার। তার মানে দাঁড়ায় এই ধার শোধ করতে হলে আঙ্কেল কে তার দেশ পুরোটা বিক্রি করতে হবে। বিশ্বাস হচ্ছে না? গুগলে সার্চ দিয়ে দেখতে পারেন।

এই ধারের টাকার অংকটা এতই বড় হয়ে দাঁড়িয়েছে যে সুদের হিসাব মিটমাটের পর আঙ্কেলের হাতে দেশ চালানোর টাকা থাকে না। আঙ্কেল নতুন টাকা ধার করার লোক ও খুঁজে পাচ্ছেন না। সব শেয়ার বাজারে ইউ এস বন্ডের দাম পড়ে যাচ্ছে।

এখন উপায়? উপায় আছে, বুদ্ধিজীবীরা সেগুলো নিয়ে অনেকদিন থেকেই চ্যাঁচাচ্ছেন। সেটা হল ‘cut spending and increase tax’। মানে খরচ কমাও আর ট্যাক্স বাড়াও। কিন্তু সামরিক খরচ কমালে আঙ্কেলের পেশি শক্তি কমাতে হবে এবং তিনি আর চীন-রাশিয়ার কাছে আর পাত্তা পাবেন না। যার ফলে উনার দুনিয়ার সব ব্যাপারে পোদ্দারি করা আর হবে না। আর অভ্যন্তরীণ ভর্তুকি কমালে উনার দেশের অর্থনীতি ভেঙে পড়বে। আর ট্যাক্স বাড়ালে? সেটা শুধু উনার মানুষদের আরও গরিব ই বানাবে না, দেশে রীতিমত রায়ট লেগে যেতে পারে

(উনার দেশের লোকগুলো আমাদের মত না, তারা ঘরে বন্দুক-পিস্তল রাখে)। #hoho #hoho #hoho

এমন পরিস্থিতিতে আঙ্কেল ওই দুই রাস্তার একটাতেও না গিয়ে একটা সহজ রাস্তা অবলম্বন করলেন টাকা বানানোর – উনি সত্যি সত্যি টাকা ‘বানানো’ শুরু করলেন।উনি ফেডারেল রিজার্ভ কে টাকা ছাপানোর নির্দেশ দিলেন এবং সেই টাকা খরচ করা শুরু করলেন। কিন্তু এইখানে অর্থনীতির সেই ক্লাস এইট এ পড়া এক সুত্র ঝামেলা বাধিয়ে দেয় - কোন পণ্য বাজারে যত বেশি থাকবে, তার দাম ততই পড়ে যাবে। এই সূত্রটা আর সবকিছুর মত ডলারের জন্যও সত্য। বাজারে ডলার যত বেশি,
কোন জিনিস কিনতে ডলারও ততই বেশি লাগবে। এজন্যই যখনই আঙ্কেল তার টাকা বানানোর ম্যাজিক দেখান তখনই তেল, সোনা, খাদ্যশস্য এইগুলোর দাম একটা ছোট্ট লাফ দেয়। আসলে ওইগুলোর দামও বাড়েনি, সাপ্লাইও কমেনি; ডলারের দাম কমে গেছে। এই পরিস্থিতির একটা খটমটে নাম আছে অর্থনীতিতে, ‘inflation’ বা ‘মূল্যস্ফীতি’।

প্যাঁচ এতটুকু পর্যন্ত থাকলে তাও হয়ত সামলানো যেত। কিন্তু আঙ্কেল এই ধার করে আসল ধরা খেয়েছেন একটু অন্য দিক থেকে। চীনের ব্যাপারটা সবাই জানে তাই তাকে নিয়েই বলি। চীন আঙ্কেলের বন্ডের সবচেয়ে বড় ক্রেতা। সোজা বাংলায় চীন আঙ্কেল কে অনেক অনেক টাকা ধার দিয়েছে। ফলে আপাতদৃষ্টিতে মনে হচ্ছে চীনের পকেটে কোন টাকা নেই আর আঙ্কেলের পকেটে টাকা আর টাকা। মানে চীন গরিব দেশ আর আমেরিকা বড়লোক দেশ। এখন আমি যদি আপনাদের বলি ভাই কোনটা নিবেন আমেরিকান ডলার না চীনা ইয়ুয়ান? আপনাকে পাগলে না কামড়ালে আপনি বড় লোক দেশের টাকা ফেলে গরিব দেশের টাকা নেবেন না। আবার সেই ক্লাস এইট এর পড়া
সুত্র – চাহিদা যত বেশি, মূল্য ও তত বেশি। ফলাফল? এক ডলার দিয়ে অনেকগুলো ইয়ুয়ান কেনা যায়। চীনা কোম্পানিগুলো তাদের শ্রমিকদের ইয়ুয়ানে বেতন দেয়, ফলে তাদের জিনিসগুলো আমেরিকাতে এসে ডলারে অনেক সস্তা হয়ে যায়।

চীনা পণ্য আমেরিকার বাজার দখল করে ফেলে। আমেরিকার কোম্পানিগুলো ভাবল তারা যদি তাদের ফ্যাক্টরিগুলো চীন এ নিয়ে যায় তাহলে তারাও চীনা শ্রমিকদের ইয়ুয়ানে বেতন দিয়ে বিশাল লাভ করতে পারবে। ফলাফল? দুনিয়ার সবকিছুর পিছনে ‘Made in China’ সিল। আর আঙ্কেলের দেশে কোন ফ্যাক্টরি নাই, অর্থাৎ সাধারণ মানুষের চাকরি নাই। অর্থনীতির ভাষায় যাকে বলে ‘recession’ বা ‘মন্দা’।

কেউ কেউ এই পর্যায়ে প্রশ্ন তুলতে পারেন যে এত মূল্যস্ফীতির পরও কেন ইয়ুয়ানের দাম ডলারের থেকে এত কম থাকে? উত্তর হচ্ছে চীনারা বড়ই চাল্লু, যেই আঙ্কেল ডলার ছাপায় সাথে সাথে তারা ইয়ুয়ান ছাপায়। ফলে যেই লাউ সেই কদুই থাকে। এটা নিয়েই তো আঙ্কেল নিয়মিত চীনাদের গালগালাজ করেন। সি এন এন ফলাও করে দেখায় সেগুলো।

এখন আমেরিকাতে যারা বেকার হচ্ছে তারা ট্যাক্স দেওয়া বন্ধ করে উল্টো আঙ্কেলের কাছ থেকে বেকার ভাতা, চিকিৎসা ভাতা এইসব নেওয়া শুরু করে দিল।ফলে আঙ্কেলের আয় কমে গেল, খরচ আরও বেড়ে গেল। যারা চাকরি হারালো না তারা তাদের চাকরি টিকিয়ে রাখার জন্য মরিয়া হয়ে কম বেতনে কাজ করতে রাজি হয়ে গেল। যখন আপনার টাকার মূল্য কমে যাচ্ছে এবং সেইসাথে আপনার ইনকামও কমে যাচ্ছে অর্থাৎ মূল্যস্ফীতি আর মন্দা একই সাথে বিদ্যমান, সেই পরিস্থিতিকে

অর্থনীতির ভাষায় বলে ‘stagflation’ যার বাংলা আমার জানা নেই।

এখন আঙ্কেলের অবস্থা জলে-কুমির-ডাঙায়-বাঘ এর মত। তিনি এখন আর ভর্তুকি কমাতে বা ট্যাক্স বাড়াতে পারবেন না; তাতে মন্দা(recession) বাড়বে। তিনি এখন টাকাও ছাপাতে পারবেন না; তাতে মূল্যস্ফীতি(inflation) বাড়বে। তিনি আপাতত আরও ধার করতে পারেন কিন্তু তাতে উনার দেউলিয়া হওয়ার সময় আরও কাছে এগিয়ে আসবে। তাই আজ হোক আর কালই হোক সেই দিন আসবেই যেদিন আঙ্কেল স্যাম আর তার বন্ডের সুদ দিতে পারবেন না। এই পরিস্থিতিকেই এখন ভালো ভাষায় বলা হচ্ছে ‘US debt crisis’।

ব্যাপারটা এই পর্যন্ত থাকলেও আঙ্কেল কে সালাম ঠুকে আমেরিকা মুর্দাবাদ বলে খিচুড়ি খেয়ে ঘুম দিতাম। কিন্তু আমাদের জন্য ভয়ের ব্যাপার হচ্ছে এই লোভের উটের পিঠে চড়া বৈশ্বিক অর্থনীতিতে ঠিক আঙ্কেল স্যামের মত অন্যান্য দেশের সরকার, ব্যাংক আর প্রতিষ্ঠানগুলোরও নিজেদের খুব বেশি টাকা নেই। আছে খালি দেনা পাওনার হিসাবওয়ালা একটা ছক যাকে তারা বলে ব্যাল্যান্স শিট।যেগুলো তৈরি করে কিছু ওভারস্মার্ট একাউন্ট্যান্ট যাদের অর্থনীতি, সামাজবিজ্ঞান এমনকি মূল্যবোধও শেখানো হয় না। পুরো পৃথিবীর বড় বড় ব্যাংক, প্রতিষ্ঠান এমনকি অন্য দেশের সরকারও তাদের কেনা আঙ্কেলের বন্ডের সুদের টাকার উপর নির্ভর করে একে অন্যের কাছে টাকা ধার করে বসে আছে। এই ধারচক্রের একটি কাঠি কাত হয়ে পড়ে তাহলে লাইন ধরে একের পর এক সবাই পড়বে। এখন যদি আঙ্কেল দেউলিয়া হয়, সে আর বছর শেষে ব্যাংক প্রতিষ্ঠান আর অন্য দেশের সরকারকে টাকা দিতে পারবে না। ফলে প্রতিষ্ঠানরা তাদের কর্মচারীদের বেতন দিতে পারবে না। ব্যাংক দেউলিয়া হয়ে যাবে, তারা আর লোন দিতে পারবে না; এমনকি গ্রাহকদের জমানো টাকাও না। অন্যদেশের সরকারও হঠাৎ করে এত টাকা জোগাড় করতে পারবে না ফলে ভর্তুকি সহ বিভিন্ন খাতে বরাদ্দ থাকবেনা। ফলে তাদের দেশের অর্থনীতিতেও মন্দা দেখা দেবে। আঙ্কেলের টাকায় চলা (রেমিটেন্স আর সাহায্য) আমাদের মত দেশগুলোও ভাতে মারা যাবে সবমিলিয়ে যা হবে তাকে বলা হয় ‘Global Economic Collaps’। মানবসভ্যতার

ইতিহাসে এটা কোনোদিন হয়নি। তাই কেউ জানে না এটা আসলেই ঘটলে তার ফলাফল কত খারাপ হবে, কতদিন এটা থাকবে, আর কিভাবেই বা এর থেকে বের হওয়া যাবে।তাসের ঘর তৈরি হয়ে গেছে, তাকে না ভেঙে নামিয়ে আনা অনেক দুঃসাধ্য যদি না হয় অসম্ভব। আমাদের এখন কি করা উচিত সেটা বলার মত অর্থনৈতিক জ্ঞান আমার নেই। আঙ্কেলের দেশে গিয়ে উচ্চশিক্ষা লাভের পর সেখানে পেটের ধান্দা করার ইচ্ছা ছিল। সেটা মনে হয় গুড়েবালি। যাই করি এটা নিশ্চিত US debt crisis

এর শেষ না দেখে বিয়ে করছি না। এই কলিযুগে সংসার পাতার মত বুকের পাটা আমার নেই

collected from other forum......for some reason i am not sharing the link.

TA Course (with Amibroker)

2010-10-11T09:51:00.000-07:00

Many of my friends requested me in phone,mail and in forum to take a TA course again.I want to say that in internet and forum you will find all tools and resources to learn TA.But they are saying that as they are busy with their professional job it becomes very hard to learn TA from the forum posting.Because it is time consuming.

So being requested by my honorable friends again i am going to arrange another TA course.
Course duration will be 12 hours.4 hours per day.Every Friday from 9 AM to 1 PM,course will be taken.
That means course will be finished in three days.

Seat is limited.So i may not give chance to all who will apply.who will apply first will get chance first.

course starting: 15.10.2010(15th october 2010)

classes will be taken on: 15,22 and 29 October from 9 am to 1 pm.

Last day of application: 14.10.2010

apply by sending email to the following mail id:

mrzaman22@gmail.com
01190469495

TA Course with Amibroker

2010-05-29T07:34:00.000-07:00

Many of my friends requested me in phone,mail and in forum to take a TA course again.I want to say that in internet and forum you will find all tools and resources to learn TA.But they are saying that as they are busy with their professional job it becomes very hard to learn TA from the forum posting.Because it is time consuming.

So being requested by my honorable friends again i am going to arrange another TA course.
Course duration will be 12 hours.4 hours per day.Every Friday from 9 AM to 1 PM,course will be taken.
That means course will be finished in three days.

Seat is limited.So i may not give chance to all who will apply.who will apply first will get chance first.

course starting: 11.06.2010(11th june 2010)

classes will be taken on: 11,18 june and 25 june from 9 am to 1 pm.

Last day of application: 9.06.2010

apply by sending email to the following mail id:

mrzaman22@gmail.com
01190469495

TA Course(with Amibroker)

2010-01-03T07:02:00.000-08:00

Many of my friends requested me in phone,mail and in forum to take a TA course again.I want to say that in internet and forum you will find all tools and resources to learn TA.But they are saying that as they are busy with their professional job it becomes very hard to learn TA from the forum posting.Because it is time consuming.

So being requested by my honorable friends again i am going to arrange another TA course.
Course duration will be 12 hours.4 hours per day.Every Friday from 9 AM to 1 PM,course will be taken.
That means course will be finished in three days.

Seat is limited.So i may not give chance to all who will apply.who will apply first will get chance first.

course starting: 8.01.2010(8th january 2010)

classes will be taken on: 8,15 january and 22nd january from 9 am to 1 pm.

Last day of application: 7.01.2010

apply by sending email to the following mail id:

mrzaman22@gmail.com
01190469495

:D

2009-10-31T11:05:00.000-07:00

TA course (with amibroker)

2009-10-09T22:49:00.000-07:00

Many of my friends requested me in phone,mail and in forum to take a TA course again.I want to say that in internet and forum you will find all tools and resources to learn TA.But they are saying that as they are busy with their professional job it becomes very hard to learn TA from the forum posting.Because it is time consuming.

So being requested by my honorable friends again i am going to arrange another TA course.
Course duration will be 12 hours.4 hours per day.Every Friday from 9 AM to 1 PM,course will be taken.
That means course will be finished in three days.

Seat is limited.So i may not give chance to all who will apply.who will apply first will get chance first.

course starting: 16.10.09(16th October 2009)

classes will be taken on: 16,30 october and 6th november from 9 am to 1 pm.

Last day of application: 15.10.09

apply by sending email to the following mail id:

mrzaman22@gmail.com
01190469495

TA course(with Amibroker)

2009-07-11T10:55:00.000-07:00

Many of my friends requested me in phone,mail and in forum to take a TA course again.I want to say that in internet and forum you will find all tools and resources to learn TA.But they are saying that as they are busy with their professional job it becomes very hard to learn TA from the forum posting.Because it is time consuming.

So being requested by my honorable friends again i am going to arrange another TA course.
Course duration will be 12 hours.4 hours per day.Every Friday from 9 AM to 1 PM,course will be taken.
That means course will be finished in three days.

Seat is limited.So i may not give chance to all who will apply.who will apply first will get chance first.

course starting: 24.07.09(24th July 2009)
Last day of application: 23.07.09

apply by sending email to the following mail id:

mrzaman22@gmail.com
01190469495

Paramount Insurance

2009-05-24T13:22:00.001-07:00

what do you think about this stock?i am optimistic.

1.it is changing is category(from z to B).
2.200 takar niche ekmatro insurance......kono insurance 200 takar niche thakbe na.....
3.it is getting support at 200 day WMA.
4.buy korte jan dekhben seller kom......this share is drying day by day.....k jane kobe purabi general ins er moto hoe jai....
5.i got a buy signal today...
6.volume is increasing.

finance sector er game shshe ins sector er game start hobe amar mone hoi....songshode odhibeshon bostese.....so insurance act nie bazare bivinno news asbe

Technical Analysis Course(with Amibroker)

2009-05-24T12:49:00.000-07:00

Many of my friends requested me in phone,mail and in forum to take a TA course again.I want to say that in internet and forum you will find all tools and resources to learn TA.But they are saying that as they are busy with their professional job it becomes very hard to learn TA from the forum posting.Because it is time consuming.

So being requested by my honorable friends again i am going to arrange another TA course.
Course duration will be 12 hours.4 hours per day.Every Friday from 9 AM to 1 PM,course will be taken.
That means course will be finished in three days.

Seat is limited.So i may not give chance to all who will apply.who will apply first will get chance first.

course starting: 5.06.09(5th june 2009)
Last day of application: 3.06.09

apply by sending email to the following mail id:

mrzaman22@gmail.com
01190469495

thanks
optimizer

Phenix insurance

2009-05-13T07:24:00.000-07:00

DSE seems stopped its fall.now index decreases due to correction of bonus of the stocks.i think we can start accumulation of share now.

have you seen phenix insurance?200 day WMA is giving suport.Moreover bollinger band is squeezed enough for a good breakout.its decleration is also good.if decleration of next session of parliament comes then insurance sector may show very good movement .

Meghnacement

2009-05-13T07:15:00.001-07:00

have you observed the movement of meghnacement?it gets support from 200 days wma.this time it also jumped from here.constantly it is generating volume....what do you think?free share in the market is very small in number.

Megjhnacement

2009-04-15T08:45:00.000-07:00

Meghnacement ekhon buy position e chole esese.today it showed buy signal.got support at 61.8% retracement level.today it generated some volume.no of free share in market is low.easy to play.i think we can make entry here.

Demat of textile stocks

2009-04-08T00:08:00.000-07:00

we can see the stocks of textile sectors are demating one by one.todaydemat news of alhaj textile came.yesterday delta spin er demat news esesilo.er age apexweaving demat hoese.

so we can expect that demat news of other textile as primetex,apexspin,saiham tex and others demat news will come within short time.so we can make our safe position in these stocks for a very handsome amount of profit.look at the stocks after demat.....huge jump.

GQ ballpen.

2009-04-03T22:07:00.000-07:00

this stock is showing a nice trading pattern.As its paid up is low it is easy to play.Moreover it is now demated share.last day volume was impressive.i hope it is going to cross 270 taka shortly.

www.optomizer.blogspot.com

textile sector

2009-04-03T22:06:00.000-07:00

after a small pullback textile sector is going to rise again.i am hopeful about this sector.primetextile,saihamtextile,apexspinning,deltaspin will do better.

cement sector

2009-04-03T22:04:00.000-07:00

technically cement sector is going to rise.specially aramitcement and meghnacement will do good.
we can keep these two stocks in our watchlist.

standard ceramic

2009-04-03T21:58:00.000-07:00

Technical position is very good.waiting for a jump.its paid up is low.no of share in public is around 132000.if market remains good next week it will fire.

we can keep an eye on it.

TA course(with amibroker)

2009-03-31T06:56:00.000-07:00

Many of my friends requested me in phone,mail and in forum to take a TA course again.I want to say that in internet and forum you will find all tools and resources to learn TA.But they are saying that as they are busy with their professional job it becomes very hard to learn TA from the forum posting.Because it is time consuming.

So being requested by my honourable friends again i am going to arrange another TA course.
Course duration will be 12 hours.4 hours per day.Every friday from 9 AM to 1 PM,course will be taken.
That means course will be finished in three days.

Seat is limited.So i may not give chance to all who will apply.who will apply first will get chance first.

course starting: 10.04.09
Last day of application: 9.04.09

apply by sending email to the following mail id:

mrzaman22@gmail.com
01190469495

thanks
optimizer

textile sector

2009-03-16T08:52:00.000-07:00

seems dse is going to start a new age.will regular trade of dse be above 500 crore?some regulatory body wants it.who knows this is the starting of a new bull like 2007?

however textile and cement sector was most undervalued in dse.both sector are on the move.
textile sector is undervalued for many years.Now time has come. whole textile sector is moving.

look at primetextile.its NAV is 292 tk and it is A category stock.last year eps was 18 taka.gives 10% cash regularly.So why will not we buy it?just look at bextex.......its price is 33 taka..but it is Z cat stock which is not giving divident for last three years.

now come to another thing.maximum textiles are paper based stock.and all A cat share will be taken under CDBL shortly.Does anyone knows this news?why yesterday there was a huge buy?around 176000 share was bought.who bought it?it is the highest volume of primetextile i have ever seen.

you know its institutional holding is around 24% and all of them bought it @ 300 taka(including 200tk premimum).i think they will pull it up above 300 taka.But it will happen step by step.Probably they will pull it up in three steps.Then we will see that primetx is above 300.

there are other undervalued but promising textiles too.according to me saiham textile and apexspinning has enough strength to go up.....

look at the chart.textile sector is gonna high.

Market and some thoughts

2009-01-28T07:25:00.000-08:00

Dhaka Stock Exchange is behaving very strange.It gains some point today,looses some next day.Actually what i see is that other stocks increases and index gets some points but bank sector takes those points.Whole bank sector is in downtrend.God knows when the fall will be stopped.

Under this type of market it is hard to make money.But we can try,because in every market there is tradable stocks.i am trying some.made profit with bdthai,atlas,united insurance.
holding some finance and waiting for a uptrend.

Now i am going to bet my money on batashoe.Technical position seemed to me better and also heard some rumour about its eps.Lets see how much it can return.

***always think twice before investing.dont invest according to my analysis.I may be wrong any time.

TA course(with amibroker)

2009-01-24T02:24:00.000-08:00

Many of my friends requested me in phone,mail and in forum to take a TA course again.I want to say that in internet and forum you will find all tools and resources to learn TA.But they are saying that as they are busy with their professional job it becomes very hard to learn TA from the forum posting.Because it is time consuming.

So being requested by my honourable friends again i am going to arrange another TA course.
Course duration will be 12 hours.4 hours per day.Every friday from 9 AM to 1 PM,course will be taken.
That means course will be finished in three days.

Seat is limited.So i may not give chance to all who will apply.who will apply first will get chance first.

course starting: 30.1.09(30th january 2009)
Last day of application: 29.1.09

apply by sending email to the following mail id:

mrzaman22@gmail.com
01190469495

thanks
optimizer

download an essential software(quick)

2009-01-20T11:25:00.000-08:00

Dear friends,
download another essential software.it is i money for personal finance management.Its price is 29.95$.But if you download it before 2pm of 21 th january and install and registry from the following link it will be free.

remember.....if you dont install and registry before 2 pm then it will be your trial version and your access will be limited.But if you registry before 2 pm tomorrow then it will be your registered version out of cost.

Link: http://optomizer.blogspot.com/

EASTLAND

2009-01-14T11:33:00.000-08:00

Is Eastland waiting for a uptrend?after pullback it has got its support at 61.8% fibbo level.I have got a buy signal in buy trading system today.Volume is generating and rsi is also less than 70 and on uptrend.Is something going in it?who knows?we can keep an eye on it.But everything is depending on market.If market is stable then we can get a good uptrend.

***just my analysis.always invest according to your judgement.
optimizer

7th ICB

2009-01-14T02:29:00.000-08:00

Is it waiting for a breakout?its paid up is too low,just 3 crore. so if anyonewants to manipulate it he needs several month to collect(as its trading volume is low).Is its collection over? is it waiting for next jump?who know?

lets see some fundamental.its NAV is 490tk.lets see other MF.sims nav is 3(it is less than three,i have just taken it for rough estimation).Grameen2 =11 taka.so their price is 5 or 6 time to their nav.if we take price will be 5 time of NAV then 7 th icb price may be above 2400.If we consider price may be 3 times of nav then its price should be 1470tk.But in dse we saw that sometimes people buy overvalued share.They want to buy running share which may give 4 day profit(though maximum time maximum people get losses from 4 dy trade).

paid up of 7th icb is only3 crore taka.So if anyone wants to play game with it he should wait 3 to 4 month to collect.Because if he wants to collect it very quickly then its price will be shot.It is already four month of downtrend of 7th icb.Have someone collected it?Does he or they want to play with it?i dont know.

Lets see some charts.It is now on consolidation phase.It is a good phase for a stock to go up.If market is stable and general paople participation is good i think this stock will go up.In chart i have show its past history.

****just my own thoughts.dont invest in this script just reading my thoughts.Apply your own judgement.
optimizer

download an essential software

2009-01-13T00:36:00.001-08:00

Download PDFZilla which is an essential software.Download it for free within 24 hours and install and register it within 24 hours because after 24 hours you have to pay 29.95$ for it.

PDFZilla is a desktop application that quickly and accurately convert PDF files into editable MS Word Documents, Rich Text Documents, Plain Text Files, Images, HTML Files, and Shockwave Flash SWF Files.

download link:

http://optomizer.blogspot.com/

Bd Thai

2009-01-13T00:22:00.000-08:00

At last Bd Thai is giving me the fruit.It rocked like hell today.huge buy pressurepushed ir to the sky today.Volume is excellent..........
So,the strategy slow and go is good.Hit and run gave loss maximum time to me.So the stock which is ready to jump but people r not buying heavily is better for fresh entry.Lets do my next experiment.

qmdrycell

2009-01-12T02:37:00.000-08:00

some friends asked me to say something about this stock.my thought is:

qmdrycell is a hold.my primary buy signal of this stock was 22.12.08 and secondary buy signal was on 1.1.09. it is increasing for 13 days. i will say it may be risky for fresh buy.its rsi is greater than 72 which is a risky zone for fresh entry.
Though i have not seen any offloading volume but i want to be safe.It has some strong rumour in the market which is hammering its price up.It needs some consolidation or pullback for the fresh buy.However who are holding it can hold it before any weaksess is seen in it.

why index is down today?

2009-01-12T02:29:00.000-08:00

today 125 scripts gained and 115 scripts lost and 7 were unchanged in dhaka stock exchange.So why dse general index decreased today?because most of the looser scripts were bank and you know 49% share of dse is bank.So for the falling of bank index has lost its point.
If market needs to go up falling of bank must be stopped.

imambutton

2009-01-10T08:14:00.000-08:00

imambutton seems to me a buyable stocks.Technical position is described in the chart .It is now generating volume.Is something fishy in it?who knows?

download nice software for free everyday

2009-01-07T02:44:00.000-08:00

Dear friends from from my blog you will be able to downlaod new software everyday for free of cost.Each offer will be valid for 24 hours.If you fail to dowload this on the release day then you have to buy it .

so get todays software and see how wonderful it is.

***you have to download it today and registry online today if you want it free.If you dont registry it then next time you have to buy it.

about market

2009-01-05T09:07:00.000-08:00

todays fall was expected.as the first 430 crore day share are matured today and they are in good profit today so some trader locked their profit.So there was a sell pressure.Over all market condition seems suitable for me.Technically index is getting a support at 2800 level.If it stabilizes above 2800 then the market will be very good.Other technical indicators are also showing positive sign of market.details is showin on graph.

moreover new govt wants to expand the market and the political situation is also stable.So i am hopeful about the market and holding my stocks tight.

BD Thai

2009-01-04T11:36:00.000-08:00

Bd thai seems good to me.It is now a very fast moving stock.Rises very quickly.It is going to B category soon.Technically it is in sound position.BB breakout occured.MACD crossingover occured.
And other indicators are giving good sign.

new year afl

2009-01-03T07:53:00.000-08:00

in the following i am sharing a afl.......a funny one.
color change code is changed by blueship.

_SECTION_BEGIN("New Year");
for( i = 1; i < BarCount; i++ )
z = (GetPerformanceCounter()/100)%30;
y = (GetPerformanceCounter()/100)%255;
Col=ColorHSB( ( i + y ) % 256, 255, 255 );
x=Cum(1);L1=LastValue(x);
F=StochD()+30*sin(Cum(1/5))+20*sin(10*Cum(1/10));
RequestTimedRefresh(1);
Plot(F,"",Col+z,styleNoLine+styleNoLabel);
PlotShapes(shapeStar*(F>95)*(X>L1-180),1+(x%35)+z);
PlotShapes(shapeHollowStar*(F<30>10)*(X>L1-180),Col);
y0=20;y1=60;y=0.5*(y0+y1);Plot(0,"",1,styleNoLine+styleNoLabel);
Plot(y0+y1,"",3,styleNoLine+styleNoLabel);
n=4;d0=140;dd=10;

d=d0;Plot(LineArray(x[L1-d],y0[d],x[L1-d+1],y1[d],0),"",3,1);
Plot(LineArray(x[L1-d-1],y[L1-d-1],x[L1-d-1+5],y[L1-d-1+4],0),"",3,1);
d1=d-n;Plot(LineArray(x[L1-d1],y0[d1],x[L1-d1+1],y1[d1],0),"",3,1);

d=d0-dd;Plot(LineArray(x[L1-d],y0[d],x[L1-d+1],y1[d],0),"",3,1);
Plot(LineArray(x[L1-d-1],y[L1-d-1],x[L1-d-1+5],y[L1-d-1+4],0),"",3,1);
Plot(LineArray(x[L1-d-1+1],y1[L1-d-1],x[L1-d-1+5+1],y1[L1-d-
1+4],0),"",3,1);
d1=d-n;Plot(LineArray(x[L1-d1],y0[d1],x[L1-d1+1],y1[d1],0),"",3,1);

d=d-dd;Plot(LineArray(x[L1-d],y0[d],x[L1-d+1],y1[d],0),"",3,1);
Plot(LineArray(x[L1-d-1],y[L1-d-1],x[L1-d-1+5],y[L1-d-1+4],0),"",3,1);
Plot(LineArray(x[L1-d-1+1],y1[L1-d-1],x[L1-d-1+5+1],y1[L1-d-
1+4],0),"",3,1);
d1=d-n;Plot(LineArray(x[L1-d1],y[d1],x[L1-d1+1],y1[d1],0),"",3,1);

d=d-dd;Plot(LineArray(x[L1-d],y0[d],x[L1-d+1],y1[d],0),"",3,1);
Plot(LineArray(x[L1-d-1],y[L1-d-1],x[L1-d-1+5],y[L1-d-1+4],0),"",3,1);
Plot(LineArray(x[L1-d-1+1],y1[L1-d-1],x[L1-d-1+5+1],y1[L1-d-
1+4],0),"",3,1);
d1=d-n;Plot(LineArray(x[L1-d1],y[d1],x[L1-d1+1],y1[d1],0),"",3,1);

d=d-dd;Plot(LineArray(x[L1-d],y0[d],x[L1-d+3],y1[d],0),"",3,1);
Plot(LineArray(x[L1-d],y1[d],x[L1-d+1],y[d],0),"",3,1);

d=d-2*dd;Plot(LineArray(x[L1-d],y0[d],x[L1-d+1],y1[d],0),"",3,1);
d1=d-n;Plot(LineArray(x[L1-d1],y0[d1],x[L1-d1+1],y1[d1],0),"",3,1);
Plot(LineArray(x[L1-d+1],y1[d],x[L1-d+4],y0[d],0),"",3,1);

d=d-dd;Plot(LineArray(x[L1-d],y0[d],x[L1-d+1],y1[d],0),"",3,1);
Plot(LineArray(x[L1-d-1],y[L1-d-1],x[L1-d-1+5],y[L1-d-1+4],0),"",3,1);
Plot(LineArray(x[L1-d-1+1],y1[L1-d-1],x[L1-d-1+5+1],y1[L1-d-
1+4],0),"",3,1);
Plot(LineArray(x[L1-d-1+1],y0[L1-d-1],x[L1-d-1+5+1],y0[L1-d-
1+4],0),"",3,1);

d=d-dd;Plot(LineArray(x[L1-d],y0[d],x[L1-d+1],y1[d],0),"",3,1);
Plot(LineArray(x[L1-d],y0[L1-d-1],x[L1-d-1+4],y[L1-d-1+3],0),"",3,1);
d1=d-n+1;Plot(LineArray(x[L1-d1],y[d1],x[L1-d1+2],y0
[d1],0),"",3,1);d=d-5;
Plot(LineArray(x[L1-d],y0[d],x[L1-d+1],y1[d],0),"",3,1);

d=d-dd;Plot(LineArray(x[L1-d],y0[d],x[L1-d+3],y1[d],0),"",3,1);
Plot(LineArray(x[L1-d],y1[d],x[L1-d+1],y[d],0),"",3,1);

d=d-7;Plot(LineArray(x[L1-d],y0[d],x[L1-d+1],y1[d],0),"",3,1);
Plot(LineArray(x[L1-d-1],y[L1-d-1],x[L1-d-1+5],y[L1-d-1+4],0),"",3,1);
Plot(LineArray(x[L1-d-1+1],y1[L1-d-1],x[L1-d-1+5+1],y1[L1-d-
1+4],0),"",3,1);
Plot(LineArray(x[L1-d-1+1],y0[L1-d-1],x[L1-d-1+5+1],y0[L1-d-
1+4],0),"",3,1);

d=d-dd;Plot(LineArray(x[L1-d],y0[d],x[L1-d+1],y1[d],0),"",3,1);
Plot(LineArray(x[L1-d-1],y[L1-d-1],x[L1-d-1+5],y[L1-d-1+4],0),"",3,1);
Plot(LineArray(x[L1-d-1+1],y1[L1-d-1],x[L1-d-1+5+1],y1[L1-d-
1+4],0),"",3,1);
d1=d-n;Plot(LineArray(x[L1-d1],y0[d1],x[L1-d1+1],y1[d1],0),"",3,1);

d=d-dd;Plot(LineArray(x[L1-d],y0[d],x[L1-d+1],y1[d],0),"",3,1);
Plot(LineArray(x[L1-d-1],y[L1-d-1],x[L1-d-1+5],y[L1-d-1+4],0),"",3,1);
Plot(LineArray(x[L1-d-1+1],y1[L1-d-1],x[L1-d-1+5+1],y1[L1-d-
1+4],0),"",3,1);
d1=d-n;Plot(LineArray(x[L1-d1],y[d1],x[L1-d1+1],y1[d1],0),"",3,1);
Plot(LineArray(x[L1-d],y[d],x[L1-d+5],y0[d],0),"",3,1);
Title="HAPPY NEW YEAR 2009";
_SECTION_END();

some stocks seems good

2009-01-03T07:27:00.001-08:00

some stocks of finance sector is looking good to me....
plfsl,midas,unioncap seems good.

To my view textile sector is most undervalued sector in dse.......we can invest in textile sector.For long term it will be a safe investment.

SECTORAL PE

2008-12-01T22:36:00.000-08:00

SECTORAL PE:

Power: 44.17
only bank :20.45
cement: 10.07
engineering: 57.79
finance: 19.02
food:21.39
gen ins: 19.99
it:35.52
Mf:27.32
miscellenious:78.81
tanery: 24.7
textile:14.35

TA course (with amibroker)

2008-12-01T19:53:00.000-08:00

DEar friends,

Some of forum members requested me to arrange a TA course in the Eid vacation as some of them are service holder.Some friends do their job outside of dhaka but they are eager to learn how to analyze the market technically.

At last i have planned for a TA course during the eid vacation.

Class will be held on 11,12,13 december(so that service holder can join)

The friends who are interested to join in the course are requested to registry their name through email.

The last date of registration is 7.12.08

Email : mrzaman22@gmail.com

DSE PE

2008-12-01T19:50:00.000-08:00

Dear friends,
i am giving below a small fundamental analysis of my own.....pls check this if there is any wrong.
Following cnsiderations are taken:

1.fundamental datas are updated to november provided by dse webste.
2.All datas having EPS 0 is neglected (such as life insurance)

Considering Z group:

total company(considering high pe company) 211
average pe 30.9007109

total company(without high pe company) 198
average pe 19.92989899

without Z group:
total company(considering high pe company) 165
average pe 29.95630303

total company(without high pe company) 157
average without high PE company 21.30745223

Group Analysis: MY new AFL

2008-11-24T14:17:00.001-08:00

Now i am showing you group analysis.This is my new afl.its efficiency is not tested yet.I dont know how far it may help.

i am showing you beximco group.here i have included only beximco ltd,bextex and bxp.otheres are excluded.

details isgiven on the chart.We have to keep in mind that this grp is for gambling.so be cautious for fresh buy.thakle netting korte paren,profit paile profit take korte paren.

amar personal believe holo ceramic sell houar age bxgrp er game shesh houar kotha na.j kono somoy game er next porjai suru hote pare.

But it is share market.anything may happen.So karo upor ondho biswas na rekhe chokh kan khola rakha uchit.

finance sector

2008-11-24T08:45:00.001-08:00

i am sorry.volume afl e ektu coding e vul silo.jar karone ektu error esese.....
actual graph hobe nicherta,...

Finance Sector

2008-11-24T07:59:00.000-08:00

Finance Sector got my attention.This sector is consolidation with good volume..It may jump.
Everything is shown in the graph.

my analysis

2008-10-13T12:46:00.000-07:00

so market was good today.Actually on sunday public were panicked seeing world market fall.But news channel and dse officials assured that there is nothing to be panicked.I think big buyers took a chance on sunday.I have told before that general public has not enough guuts to buy stock in falling market.SO 590 crore was a buy.

Today word market seems bery good.dow jones gained 730 point.other stock exchange in america is also gaining.
hang seng gained 1515 points today.I think it may impact tomorrows asian market.Seeing this uptrend bangladeshi investors may get confidence to buy.So market is going to reach 3000 level again i think.

Today textile sector and cement sector showed strenght.i prefer cement.heidelberg's 52 weeks high is 1770 taka and meghnacement's 52 wekk high is 798 taka.confidence cement 560 tk.
So we may get a good spread in this sector if we enter.however we must be very careful now as market is very volatile now a days.

about tomorrow's market

2008-10-12T11:55:00.000-07:00

i think market will turn back from tomorrow.All tv channels have said not to panic and they also said that today was institutional buy.It will have impact on tomorrows market.
Just think..... have general public enough guts to buy stock in falling market?when market falls they start to sell.590 crore trade is not possible by general investor.I think it is surely a institutional buy.we the small investors are fool.if the manupulator increases the index for two consecutive days we will again start to buy.They took the chance.They bought some stock at cheap price from us.

MIDAS

2008-10-10T13:02:00.000-07:00

Record date is knocking at the door.Some good news are also around us.lets see how far it goes before record date

PLFSL

2008-10-10T13:00:00.000-07:00

this stock seems promising to me.i am in love with its volume.

heidelberg cement

2008-10-10T12:55:00.000-07:00

Seems promising to me.cement sector is undervalued in dse.

Gq ballpen

2008-10-10T12:53:00.000-07:00

one of my favourite stock.i am going to take profit from it for the third time.

mercins

2008-10-10T12:52:00.000-07:00

agrani ins

2008-10-10T12:51:00.000-07:00

beximco pharma

2008-10-10T12:47:00.000-07:00

beximco pharma is gaining strength.we can watch it.

batbc

2008-10-10T12:41:00.000-07:00

a very good stock in dse.

finance sector

2008-10-09T07:16:00.000-07:00

last day finance sector moved.Seems finance and insurance will move together.Next week this two sector will make a hell in dse.paid up is small so easy to move. table shows which finance company can give more spread in this upward journey.they are sorted according to the spread percentage.

which insurance will give more spread

2008-10-07T12:27:00.000-07:00

insurance is gonna rock for some days.which insurance will give you more spread?
which are more low than 52 week high will give u more spread.see the following table and take ur decision.there is low price insurance and high price insurance.select of ur own:

finance sector

2008-09-08T12:05:00.001-07:00

in the following chart i have sorted finance sector according to paid up capital,as low paidups r played well

Batbc

2008-09-08T11:44:00.000-07:00

BATBC seems promising to me.Half yearly EPS is very good.Projected PE is in green zone.Bollinger band is squeezing,can expect a good breakout.Collection period is going on.

finance sector

2008-09-08T11:11:00.000-07:00

Today finance sector moved silently.Hope a good play is waiting.In the table all fundamental data are showed.We may choose low capital with low public holding stock.

my strategy

2008-09-06T02:15:00.000-07:00

Ami j strategy r follow kori tar ekta valo exception holo ACI.According to my strategy i would miss ACI.But exception is exception.Aci moved bcz of ACI Formulation.This type of news causes extra pressue on stock.Even big guns jump in that stocks at high price.

Now come to confidence cement.I have shown its movement in the graph.From my small knowledge and observation i have taken this type of decision(be cautious when high volm is traded with high price change).See the spikes in the gpaph.I become cautious on that day.And i am now thinking to change some thing in the breakout type of trading.In dse if we make some modification on breakout i think we can make more profit.

pragati ins

2008-09-05T11:47:00.000-07:00

Pragati ins:

director:50%
public:50%

it gained above 47% in ten days.Is it not enough for a big gun to take profit?we trader always watch for big volume.Does big volm always indicate entry of big guns?i dont think so.They will not give chance to the stock to increase when they will entry.When their exit time comes lots of rumour comes to market.Lots of prediction,speculation.Some says it will go there,it will not stop unless it reaches there and so.

there is a news i saw abt insurance today.If news helps to increase a stock why insurance fall after act is published?bcz big buyers were out of it.I think this time also insurance will increase but to help offloading the big guns.Is it not enough increase for a small duration?all stocks need some rest,some small correction,small consolidation.It is not high time for fresh entry.

Among all insurance pragati caught my eyes.According to me big guns have off loaded it on 2 and 3 september.abt 1.46% stock was traded on that day(2ndsep) with 11.18% price increase.In this type of day big guns never take a entry.Rather they exit.Past says same things.All other informations are given in the chart.

Salm

2008-09-01T13:38:00.000-07:00

Salam is creating a nice pattern.It is W pattern.One of the most profitable pattern.See in the chart.

sqrtex

2008-08-30T08:27:00.000-07:00

SQRTEX is an excellent stock to me.Fundafmentally it is good.If one wants to keep it for long term he may enter in it any time.

But if you want to trade with it that means if you dont want it to keep for long time then it is late to enter.It is in such a position that any day it will jump and after that day it may cool down again as it did previous.Actually according to my chart its buy signal was 19.08.08.

update of my exit afl

2008-08-28T13:55:00.000-07:00

i have updated my exit afl.I have added a new thing here which will help me to show the price fluctuation with respect to my buy price

2008-08-22T12:35:00.000-07:00

i have attached the financial performance of the companies here.All datas are sorted in ascending order of PE ratio.Z categories are avoided here.

2008-08-22T12:30:00.000-07:00

2008-08-22T12:26:00.000-07:00

2008-08-22T12:19:00.000-07:00

bx pharma

2008-08-13T09:39:00.000-07:00

bxph is generating volume for last 5 days.It seems good to me.Not very fluctuation.Steady increase in price.in this falling market it is showing strength.

paid up capital of bank

2008-08-12T14:57:00.000-07:00

paid capital are given in the chart and pic

bakns future

2008-08-12T14:49:00.000-07:00

BB is going to implement basel2.Decleration is coming.It will be implemented in 2 or 3 years.
from:ittefaq,amader somoy.

courtesy:paper cutting(from SB)

working with intraday data

2008-08-10T12:32:00.000-07:00

Now i have started to work with intraday data.For this i have written a afl.extra three fundamental field is added in the afl.They are paid up capital,reserve and divident.
intraday data generation is done by a soft created by mithu vai(a great coder,thanks to him).

update of my afl

2008-08-10T05:49:00.000-07:00

i updating my afl.feeling good.Yet to modify a lot.Need huge time.

what happened to beximco ltd?

2008-08-10T05:21:00.000-07:00

what happened to beximco ltd?It is falling sharply.where will it stop?It may have a very weak support at 104 tk level.If it crosses this with huge volume its luck is bad i think.It may get support at 80 tk level next.

More over i think big fishes have sold off their holdings of beximco ltd.see the graph.4.6% share is sold off in 10 minutes 5.08.08.some group made it to go up and then offloaded.as there is no buy pressure now from big buyer it sis falling.Why will they buy it with this high price?they will buy it in low price

update of my afl

2008-08-08T08:45:00.000-07:00

i have updated my afl.A lot of modification still needed.I have to much more things.LEts see what happens

new afl

2008-08-03T11:53:00.000-07:00

today i have written a new afl which helps me showing the loss % and profit percentage.I t also shows how much the stock increased or decresed from my buy value.

todays pe

2008-08-03T03:54:00.000-07:00

low PE

2008-08-02T06:46:00.000-07:00

In the following chart i attached the share which got the lowest PE.Here i used 2007 EPS and yesterday closing price.SO some stock will not give actual PE.Correct them yourself.

glaxosmith

2008-07-25T10:56:00.001-07:00

their last year EPS was 3.64tk.So how much price it must be?is it not highly overvalued?as the public portion is very low its price is high.Look for the four new product their profit will increase.But how much??what will be their this year EPS?

come to TA.When there is very good volume with small price increase we can assume it as big guns buy or institutional buy.Do they buy in high price?i dont think so.Today its price increasd abt 17.49%.Is it not suspicious?i think they have not bought today.Some portion they have sold.And for next two days they will offload it more.look at their last day volume.It is 1.17% of their total volume.But public have only .79%.So from where that volm came?i think that it will increase for one more day,at best two days.then it will start to fall.
other things are shown in graph.

sqr tex

2008-07-24T08:03:00.000-07:00

i want to say something abt sqrtex.
fundamentally its a good stock.i love it.but we want profit.If we stuck with it for 2,3 month i think it will not give so much profit.But if we take some trick it will be a good stock for us.I have applied this and got profit everytime.

First to say about TA on it.several times it crossed bollinger band but it could not hold its strenth .Why???
because it crosses the band when it is in wide range.I want to say that it starts to move before the bollinger band squeezes.If a stock crosses bollinger band after squeezing we can get a very good profit .so observing bb cross for this stock we will not get profit.

Now come to them who uses EMA crossing over.Have you observed?after crossing over it cannot hold its strength.So seeing this crossing we cannot get profit.Actually by this technique we will loose for this stock.

then how will trade with this stock?just try to buy when it is below 120tk.then when it moves 7 to 8 tk in one day sell some portion of your stock on that day.And 2 third sell on the next day.And rest of the stock sell after that day.Then the stock will again come to its origin.

bextex

2008-07-20T09:42:00.001-07:00

I dont think betex is now to buy for us.When big buyer buys a share they dont allow
to increase the value of that share in huge percentage.This occurs when they want to offload their share they begin to increase its value and then offloaded to us.all is shown in the graph.

Aroon oxcillator

2008-07-19T06:38:00.000-07:00

Aroon
Developed by Tushar Chande in 1995, Aroon is an indicator system that can be used to determine whether a stock is trending or not and how strong the trend is. "Aroon" means "Dawn's Early Light" in Sanskrit and Chande choose that name for this indicator since it is designed to reveal the beginning of a new trend.
The Aroon indicator system consists of two lines, 'Aroon(up)' and 'Aroon(down)'. It takes a single parameter which is the number of time periods to use in the calculation. Aroon(up) is the amount of time (on a percentage basis) that has elapsed between the start of the time period and the point at which the highest price during that time period occurred. If the stock closes at a new high for the given period, Aroon(up) will be +100. For each subsequent period that passes without another new high, Aroon(up) moves down by an amount equal to (1 / # of periods) x 100.

Technically, the formula for Aroon(up) is:

[ [ (# of periods) - (# of periods since highest high during that time) ] / (# of periods) ] x 100
For example, consider plotting a 10-period Aroon(up) line on a daily chart. If the highest price for the past ten days occurred 6 days ago (4 days since the start of the time period), Aroon(up) for today would be equal to ((10-6)/10) x 100 = 40.
Aroon(down) is calculated in just the opposite manner, looking for new lows instead of new highs. When a new low is set, Aroon(down) is equal to +100. For each subsequent period that passes without another new low, Aroon(down) moves down by an amount equal to (1 / # of periods) x 100.

The formula for Aroon(down) is :

[ [ (# of periods) - (# of periods since lowest low during that time) ] / (# of periods) ] x 100
Continuing the example above, if the lowest price in that same ten-day period happened yesterday (i.e. on day 9), Aroon(down) for today would be 90.

Aroon Oscillator

A separate indicator called the Aroon Oscillator can be constructed by subtracting Aroon(down) from Aroon(up). Since Aroon(up) and Aroon(down) oscillate between 0 and +100, the Aroon Oscillator will oscillate between -100 and +100 with zero as the center crossover line.

Interpretation Guidelines

Chande states that when Aroon(up) and Aroon(down) are moving lower in close proximity, it signals that a consolidation phase is under way and no strong trend is evident. When Aroon(up) dips below 50, it indicates that the current trend has lost its upward momentum. Similarly, when Aroon(down) dips below 50, the current downtrend has lost its momentum. Values above 70 indicate a strong trend in the same direction as the Aroon (up or down) is under way.
The Aroon Oscillator signals an upward trend is underway when it is above zero and a downward trend is underway when it falls below zero. The farther away the oscillator is from the zero line, the stronger the trend
In some ways, Aroon is similar to Wilder's DMI system (and the Aroon Oscillator is similar to Wilder's ADX line) however the Aroon is constructed in a completely different manner. Divergences between the two systems may be very instructive.

The AFL Language of AROON will be as following.just copy it to yourformula editor and run.

_SECTION_BEGIN("Aroon Indicators");
//------------------------------------------------------------------------------
//
// Formula Name: Aroon Indicators
// Author/Uploader: Marek Chlopek
// E-mail: mchlopek@post.pl
// Date/Time Added: 2001-12-20 03:36:38
// Origin:
// Keywords: Aroon
// Level: basic
// Flags: indicator
// Formula URL: http://www.amibroker.com/library/formula.php?id=138
// Details URL: http://www.amibroker.com/library/detail.php?id=138
//
//------------------------------------------------------------------------------
//
// A time price oscillator.
//
//------------------------------------------------------------------------------

// AROON.AFL v 0.006 20/12/2001
// Aroon
// Coded by Marek Chlopek, December 2001
// For interpretation of the Aroon indicators refer to Tushar Chande's article
// "Time Price Oscillator" in the Sep, 95 S&C magazine

// Thanks to Mr Dimitris Tsokakis for his suggestions.
// See message tread: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/amibroker/message/7367

// ****************************************************************************************
// INITIALIZATION OF EXPLORATION IN AMIBROKER
// ****************************************************************************************
Filter = 1;
NumColumns = 5;
Column0 = O; Column0Name = "O"; Column0Format = 1.2;
Column1 = H; Column1Name = "H"; Column1Format = 1.2;
Column2 = L; Column2Name = "L"; Column2Format = 1.2;
Column3 = C; Column3Name = "C"; Column3Format = 1.2;
Column4 = V; Column4Name = "V"; Column4Format = 1.0;

// END OF "INITIALIZATION OF EXPLORATION IN AMIBROKER" SECTION

// ****************************************************************************************
// AROON INDICATORS
// ****************************************************************************************
Period = 14;
LLVBarsSince = LLVBars(L, Period) + 1;
HHVBarsSince = HHVBars(H, Period) + 1;

Aroon_Down = 100 * (Period - LLVBarsSince) / (Period - 1);
Aroon_Up = 100 * (Period - HHVBarsSince) / (Period - 1);
Aroon_Osc = Aroon_Up - Aroon_Down;

// Exploration in Amibroker
AddColumn(LLVBarsSince, "LLVBarsSince", format=1.0);
AddColumn(HHVBarsSince, "HHVBarsSince", format=1.0);
AddColumn(Aroon_Down, "Aroon_Down", format=1.2);
AddColumn(Aroon_Up, "Aroon_Up", format=1.2);
AddColumn(Aroon_Osc, "Aroon_Osc", format=1.2);

// END OF "AROON INDICATORS" SECTION

// ****************************************************************************************
// GRAPHICS PRESENTATION IN AMIBROKER
// ****************************************************************************************
MaxGraph = 3;
Graph0 = Aroon_Down; Graph0Style = 8+4; Graph0Color = 7;
Graph1 = Aroon_Up; Graph1Style = 1+4; Graph1Color = 4;
Graph2 = Aroon_Osc; Graph2Style = 2; Graph2Color = 1;

Title = Name()
+ " - Aroon_Down = " + WriteVal(Graph0, 1.2) + " %"
+ ", Aroon_Up = " + WriteVal(Graph1, 1.2) + " %"
+ ", Aroon_Osc = " + WriteVal(Graph2, 1.2) + " %";

// END OF "GRAPHICS PRESENTATION IN AMIBROKER" SECTION

// ****************************************************************************************
// END OF CODE (ARRON.AFL)
// ****************************************************************************************
/**/
_SECTION_END();

ULC

2008-07-19T04:31:00.000-07:00

Hmm.We have to wait a bit for ULc.Just now its movement is not clear.still now it is on downtrend.

2008-07-18T09:14:00.000-07:00

Its a good stock.Public holding is 28%.Huge collection is going on.Details is given on the chart.
We can collect in small amount daily.

finding out the percentage change in a time range

2008-07-16T10:01:00.000-07:00

1.This AFL is written to find out the % change of a particular field(price,volume,high...) for time range.
2.time range is inputed by clicking in two different places(first click on the first date and then click on the second date)
3.there will be a green vertical line on the screen for first click andthen a red vertical line for second clisk.
Hope all of you will enjoy.
Just copy the following code into your formula editor and run

field=ParamField("field",3);
y=EndValue(field);
x=BeginValue(field);
Change=(y-x)*100/x;
period=EndValue(BarIndex())-BeginValue(BarIndex());

Plot(period,"Time period in days",colorBlue,styleNoDraw|styleNoRescale);
Color=IIf(O>C,colorRed,colorBrightGreen);
Plot(C,"close",Color,styleCandle|styleNoTitle);
Plot(Change,"% change",colorGreen,styleNoDraw|styleNoRescale);

how to back up ami data?

2008-07-15T11:48:00.000-07:00

Sometimes i saw amibroker crashed.then i lost my data.abar onek somoy bivinno csv file theke ami te data input kore total data pai.Amra ki ami broker er sob data ekta file e csv akare save korte pari na?
I have written an AFl which will help you to make back up of your amidata.
I have attached an afl.
1.At first run this afl.
2.Select all quotaion
3.select all symble
4.press explore

Then
5.press export and save the file giving a name.it will be your csv file of backup
Now come to the point how youwill use it in future?

1.click import wizard
2.pick the file and next
3.select the column as
column1(ticker),column2(MDY),column3(open),column4(high),column5(low),column6(close),column7(volume)
4.next
5.finish byclicking what you usually do

the afl should be as:

//This program is written to keep the back up of ami broker file.
//hope you will enjoy
//thank you......OPTIMIZER

Filter=1;
AddColumn(O,"Open");
AddColumn(H,"High");
AddColumn(L,"LOW");
AddColumn(C,"Close");
AddColumn(V,"Volume");

Keya

2008-07-05T09:02:00.000-07:00

keya Cosmetic:
year     eps     NAV     divident   div yield
2007   4.05   15.96    30.00   11.03

about 23.64% of total share traded in last 13 days.Last day 3.45% share traded.It has generated a good volume.I think it will jump on next few days.Got a buy signal last day.Its pullback seems over.Now it will go on uptrend.All information are included in the graph.

Keya detergent:
year     eps     NAV     divident   div yield
2007    3.92   15.94       21.00      12.28

Look the NAV of keya detergent and cosmetic is almost same.Its EPS is 13 paisa lower than cosmetic.If keya cos is 78 taka what price of detergent we can expect?It needs to go above 60 taka.Moreover in this market simple low divident company is more valued than keyas.We can keep an keen eye on keyas.

Technical details are given on the graph.

npolymar

2008-07-04T12:17:00.000-07:00

National polymar has caught my eyes.In last 9 days about 8.09% share is traded in low price.
On 6.22.08 4.08% share is bought by somebody in low price variation.On the last trading day 1020 share traded but price increased about 9% from opening price.We know its share per lot is 10.So it is very easy to play with it.If someone tries to increase its value(big buyer) he can easily do it.We can assume that last day the increase of price is not occured from high demand.As low volume is traded.I think someone is trying to increase its value to offload it.
The price seems low to me to collect before it jumps.
Lets see what happens

Bata

2008-07-04T10:26:00.000-07:00

About Bata.
I like it.It gave a buy signal.Other technical information is given on chart

Aci

2008-07-03T04:53:00.000-07:00

Aci is a very good share.But our market is too volatile.And huge amount of insider trading occurs here.Big buyers know the inside information some days ago it comes to market.They stars to stock it when it is low.
When the news comes to market they make the price to go to sky and then they offloads it.I have observed that when there is huge volume with low price change then big buyers collect.But when there is huge volume with high price change then they offload it.

In last 13 days about 8.23% of total volume is traded.We can assume that here the big fishes collected.Today 6.57% share is traded with 12.78% price increase.It tells me to be cautious.
Aci may be very good.But when all the buyers are the general public in the field,the price hardly goes up.Rather it decreases gradually.
Lets see what happens.

80 days low

2008-07-02T07:47:00.001-07:00

this chart shows 80 days low.Here powergrid presents.Actually power grid is now in historical low.
Two big institution(prime bank and AB bank) has huge amount of power grid.
I have to keep an keen eye on it.

70days low

2008-07-02T06:40:00.000-07:00

just see the following shares.They are all have come to 70 days low.Who want to buy at bottom can check this.
There are Z categories here.Try to avoid them.
Good prospective are powergrid.On AB bank's portfolio there is huge volume of powergrid.They have increased their stock on this item from previous year.

Ecables is govt share.It can be put on watch list.
And 7th Icb.I will see where it may go(both in down and up).

Aims and grameen1

2008-06-30T05:11:00.000-07:00

eta really vondami,joccuri.In their HY report they have shown their unrealised appreciation as income.so their HY EPS has bocome huge.
But in Full year report there is no unrealized income.And according to the Accounting(i have discussed with one of my friend who passed from DU on accounting) it is not allowed.

They have really done fraud with us.

Where is the SEC?tara check na kore oder web e eta publish korlo keno?They are suckhing our blood.

Fareastlifeinsurance

2008-06-30T04:21:00.000-07:00

Fareast is good.Decleration is good.But why we will buy now?For investing midterm our buy time has gone.For trading(4 day trade) i think buy time is also gone.In this time big fishes are selling it to us.Why we shall buy from them?All of this is my view.
Technical analysis is given in graph.

Pran,Apex Adelchi

2008-06-29T22:48:00.001-07:00

Pran,Apexadelchi

2008-06-29T22:39:00.000-07:00

I am in pran and adelchi.Aci e dhukte chai but no fund.
Now come to a small analysis:
PRAN:
about 6.45% of total share is traded in last 10 days.1.11% share is traded on 19.06.08.Who bought this?The price variation is between 1050 to 1149tk in ten days.

From technical analysis we can see that it is on consolidation period.I think we can enter in it.
price level to enter:around 1105tk.
Adelchi:
about 8.68% share is traded in last 10 days.Price range 3435 to 3729.1.55% share is traded on 24.06.08.Whou bought this?
their EPS is now 225tk which was 66 tk last year.
paid up capital is only 10crore taka.
do you want to know composition of shareholding?
institution had 22% last year and this year 46%(imagine)
public had 28% last year.this year 13%(fool public)
ANd i heard AB foundation is accumulating this share.
the company has signed a agreement with ala nuva adelshi of ITALy.
In china tanery is under control now(for environment polution) and their some order is transfered to apex.
ABout 93% of product is exported that is good for company because for exported item 50% tax is exempted.
ABout 57% earning is retained this year that means they have to pay bonus next year if they dont want to keep the cash for further investment.

Eastland

2008-06-29T04:50:00.000-07:00

have you seen the trade of Eastland?I got a buy signal here.moreover about 11.39% of total volume is traded in last 10 days.In this zone i think the big buyer are buying.Other information are given in the chart.I am expecting a jump of Eastland.

2008-06-28T14:23:00.000-07:00

HHV and LLV

2008-06-28T14:07:00.000-07:00

Today i have created an AFL which will show the highest high value and lowest low value in a particular time range.We will just click on the chart on different two place and afl will say us the highest high and lowest low in that range.

Again the two line(uper and lower side) shows the highest high and lowest low value from the last bar to selected bar.

ICB

2008-06-27T02:41:00.000-07:00

Today i saw a interney report of ICB.There i saw that all ICB fund were formed before 2001.And So they will not be under SEC new rule.For them the ordinance of 1993(may be 1994) will be applicable.This new rule will be applicable for grameen1 and aims,i think.

Again lets assume new rule is applicable for ICB.Then come to an analysis.
When a MF is expanded what happens?More cash comes and the manager buys some stock with high price which he has in low price.The efficiency and rate of return decreases.Look at 7th icb.ITs HY income is 127tk and we can assume it around 250tk.IF they give bonus it will quick jump but in the long run their EPS will decreases.But In case of cash divident there price and EPS will not decrease.For an investment it is good.
If they 80% of their income then divident comes to 200% cash.If they declare it what will be its price?Now in this market we see the divident yield is around 5.If we take yield as 7its price will be 2857tk and if we consider it as 5 its price will be 4000tk.
If you but 7th icb at 1800tk and get 200%cash what will your yield?about 11.11%.Is it not a good divident?

Just keep the icb as your FDR.Not sale it considering [color=#FF0040]heavy[/color] loss.But if u want to get low profit and 5 or 6% loss you can come out from it.But For long term investment i will collect it more at low price.
Thanks.

todas trade

2008-06-24T12:32:00.000-07:00

bojha gelo na ajke ki holo.sobkisur dam barlo.kintu duita item er trade amar posondo hoi nai.Mane normal market behaviour dekhi nai.
first is SQpharm and second is apexadelchi.Both of them is good and i personaly like.But today trade of that two item caused tension to me.
Because when i saw increasing sqrpharm i observed that 1,2or 4 share are bought on left side.but on the right side no is greater(50,100 or more).It happens when someone intentionally increases the value of share.After increasing they starts to sell.
Same things happened to apex adelchi,On the left side i saw 20 share(1 lot)on the total colm when the price began to increase from 3580 to 3690.
Same thing happened to joil some days ago.
they did same thing to AB before RD(reverse process,here they decreased the price).
god knows what will happen.Hope best trading for all.

apex adelchi

2008-06-20T13:08:00.000-07:00

apex adelchi is a promising company now.

their EPS is now 225tk which was 66 tk last year.
paid up capital is only 10crore taka.
do you want to know composition of shareholding?
institution had 22% last year and this year 46%(imagine)
public had 28% last year.this year 13%(fool public)
ANd i heard AB foundation is accumulating this share.
the company has signed a agreement with ala nuva adelshi of ITALy.
In china tanery is under control now(for environment polution) and their some order is transfered to apex.
ABout 93% of product is exported that is good for company because for exported item 50% tax is exempted.
ABout 57% earning is retained this year that means they have to pay bonus next year if they dont want to keep the cash for further investment.

2008-06-20T13:05:00.000-07:00

i have found that when a stock reaches to 100 day EMA then it jumps(actually long day ago shaz vai told that and i checked ).Sinobangla has reached to 100 day EMA.So we can expect a jump from it.it happened several times for sinobangla which is shown in graph.lets see what happens to it.I am going to enter

keya cos and keya det

2008-06-19T22:04:00.001-07:00

according to TA i got buy signal.Its are good company.divident is very good.
But one drawback.Director sell occurs sometimes and in huge amount.But to my view it is a good company for short or long as you wish.

But among keya cos and keyadet i prefer keya detergent.As Of two companies they have almost same income and NAV now.But now keya det is in low quantity than keya cos in public hand.keya det needs to reach to keya cos.i am optimistic about keya det.
thanks